AGOA’s uncertainty is not merely a crisis- it’s a reflection of how we’ve structured our economies, writes Maxwell Okello, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kenya
Over the past few months, I've had countless conversations with policymakers and exporters navigating impossible uncertainty about contracts and commitments entered into in good faith. What has become clear from these conversations is this: the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) isn't just a trade policy.
In Kenya, for instance, it's a lifeline for over 66,000 women and youth in the textile and apparel sector alone. It's the difference between prosperity for hundreds of thousands more across horticulture, manufacturing, and agriculture.
But AGOA is also something else- a mirror reflecting a deeper question we must confront: What kind of trade partnership do we truly want with the United States?
The Numbers Tell Only Part of the Story
Africa's exports to the U.S. grew from US$ 17.9 billion in 2002 to US$ 31.4 billion in 2022, peaking in 2008 at US$ 86.1 billion. Kenya is one of the success stories, with exports growing from US$ 110 million in 2000 to US$ 771.3 million by 2024. Our textile and apparel sector, which accounts for more than 90% of AGOA exports, has created tens of thousands of jobs- primarily for women and young people.
The question isn’t: "How do we save AGOA?"
It’s: "How do we build an African economy so integrated, dynamic, resilient that no single external trade agreement can make or break us?"
These aren't just statistics. They represent lives transformed, school fees paid, and families lifted out of poverty.
But here's what the numbers don't capture: the anxiety of entrepreneurs who built their businesses on duty-free access, now watching that certainty dissolve into political uncertainty; the stress of workers hearing that their livelihoods depend on Congressional debates thousands of miles away.
That's the human cost of uncertainty.
We Need More
Recent discussions of a one-year AGOA extension are a relief- but not a solution. It buys time, but not stability.
You cannot build a sustainable enterprise on a one-year horizon. You cannot attract foreign direct investment when your competitive advantage expires annually. You cannot plan for growth when you're perpetually planning for survival.
It's not just about renewing AGOA- it’s about reimagining what our trade partnership with the U.S should look like for the next generation.
AGOA’s uncertainty is not merely a crisis- it’s a reflection of how we’ve structured our economies. We've built export engines facing outward while our largest market- 1.4 billion Africans with a combined GDP of over US$ 3 trillion- remains largely untapped. We have the world’s youngest, fastest-growing population and complementary economies capable of building integrated continental value chains.
What we lack is the commitment to trade with each other first.
Three Truths We Must Acknowledge
First, AGOA was never meant to be permanent.
Trade preferences were designed to build capacity, strengthen competitiveness, and eventually transition to more sustainable trade models. Kenya has done precisely that. We've built world-class manufacturing capacity capable of competing anywhere.
The question isn't whether we can survive without AGOA- it's whether we're brave enough to thrive beyond it.
Second, bilateral trade agreements take time, but the work must begin now.
President Ruto's pursuit of a bilateral trade agreement with the United States is the right approach. Such an agreement would offer the long-term predictability our businesses desperately need. However, these negotiations are complex, requiring alignment across multiple sectors and stakeholders.
That's why we need a robust transition framework- not a one-year patch, not recurring cliffhangers, but a meaningful bridge, perhaps five years, to complete bilateral negotiations without holding our breath every twelve months.
Third, we cannot put all our trade eggs in one basket.
Even as we pursue deeper ties with the U.S., we must accelerate implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), expand markets in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, and ensure that our young entrepreneurs are not reliant on a single market access channel.
Diversification isn't disloyalty- it's a sound economic strategy.
Where Policy Meets Practice
The Kenyan government has pursued AGOA extension and bilateral negotiations with determination, and that effort matters deeply.
But what would amplify this progress is the accelerated implementation of AfCFTA provisions- moving from commitments to commercialization. Trade facilitation reforms that genuinely reduce the cost of doing business are essential, as is policy consistency that allows investors to plan beyond election cycles. Perhaps most critically, we need integration across sectors.
Trade policy works best when synchronized with industrial strategy, infrastructure investment, and skills development. Siloed efforts, however well-intentioned, yield fragmented results.
Mutual Economic Prosperity
What businesses on both sides need now is predictability- the ability to sign contracts with confidence, make investment decisions without annual cliffhangers, and build supply chains that serve both American and African markets sustainably.
AGOA has created value for American consumers through competitive products, for American companies through reliable sourcing, and for the U.S. interests through the economic stability that partnership supports.
As we navigate this transition, whether toward bilateral agreements, an extended AGOA, or new frameworks, the spirit of mutual benefit must guide us as equal partners building a system that works for all.
Ubuntu in Trade
In leadership, I often return to the African philosophy of Ubuntu: I am because we are. It reminds us that true prosperity is shared- that sustainable growth uplifts communities, not just companies.
That is the spirit we need in this moment. Not Global North versus Global South, nor East versus West Africa, but a genuine commitment to building trade frameworks that create shared prosperity for all.
Currently, intra-African trade accounts for only 15-18% of total trade, far below other regions, where it ranges from 40 to 80%. From where I sit, that’s the real inflection point. Our greatest opportunity as Africans is to trade more- and trade smarter- among ourselves. Not as a fallback if AGOA ends, but as the economic strategy we should have been pursuing all along.
What Business Can Do
This moment calls for practical shifts in how we operate.
Market diversification isn't just risk management- it's a growth strategy. The businesses navigating this uncertainty best are those building multiple revenue streams across different regions.
Our greatest opportunity as Africans is to trade more- and trade smarter- among ourselves.
Active participation in AfCFTA matters, not waiting for perfect conditions, but trading, learning, and contributing through real commercial experience.
And perhaps most importantly, investing the same energy in understanding African markets that we've historically invested in understanding Western ones.
The Real Question
The question isn’t: "How do we save AGOA?"
It’s: "How do we build an African economy so integrated, dynamic, resilient that no single external trade agreement can make or break us?"
AGOA's uncertainty is uncomfortable- but comfort breeds complacency, while discomfort drives innovation. And innovation builds resilience.
Sixty-six thousand Kenyans in the textile sector are counting on us. Hundreds of thousands more across African economies are watching. More importantly, a generation of African entrepreneurs is ready to build pan-African businesses- if we create the enabling environment.
The future of African trade won't be written outside the continent. It will be shaped by the choices we make here, now, together, by whether we see this moment as a loss or a liberation, and whether we finally commit to the economic integration we've long promised.
I remain optimistic- not because AGOA might be extended, though that would help- but because of the immense, untapped potential waiting to be unleashed if African businesses are given real access to African markets.
What are we waiting for?
