Africa’s private capital activity contracted for a third straight period in early 2026, with deal volumes falling even as a surge in a handful of billion-dollar transactions lifted headline investment value.
- •The continent recorded 172 private market transactions in the first quarter, down from 188 in the previous quarter and 201 a year earlier, according to a new report by Stears Information Limited.
- •Despite the slowdown, total disclosed deal value climbed to US$16.1 billion, up from US$14.1 billion in Q4 2025, and US$5.8 billion in the same period last year, reflecting the outsized impact of a few large deals.
- •Two Nigerian transactions accounted for roughly 63% of total deal value: MTN Group’s US$6.2 billion acquisition of IHS Holding’s Nigerian operations and a US$4 billion debt financing for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery led by Afreximbank.
The share of mega-deals fell to 16%, down from 22% in the previous quarter. Disclosure rates also weakened, dropping to 58% from 65%, suggesting reduced visibility into transactions.
Mid-sized transactions, those between US$25 million to US$75 million range, offered one of the few signs of resilience. Egypt emerged as the dominant hub in this category, accounting for 55% of such transactions. Much of this activity was concentrated in real estate and industrial financing, underscoring Egypt’s growing role as a center for mid-market capital deployment.
Financial services remained the leading sector, accounting for 29% of all transactions, driven largely by lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Together with industrials, energy, information technology, and consumers’ segments, they accounted for 85% of all deals, up from 77% in the previous quarter.
Mergers and acquisitions make up a significant share of activity, representing nearly a quarter of all transactions, as companies pursued consolidation in response to tighter funding conditions. At the same time, early-stage venture investment persisted in niche areas such as mobility and artificial intelligence, though at relatively small ticket sizes.
Meanwhile, West Africa is still the most active region with 37% of transactions, followed by North Africa at 30%. In East Africa; Kenya led deal activity, particularly in electric mobility ventures.
Even as transactions slowed, capital flowed through a narrow set of institutions. Multilateral lenders, including African Export-Import Bank, the International Finance Corporation, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, were among the most active investors.
Without foreign acquirers, exits relied more heavily on intra-African capital, limiting valuation upside and constraining capital recycling.
