Globalisation is far from over, it’s simply evolving.
- •The latest DHL Global Connectedness Tracker (2025) reveals that global trade flows have surged to record highs, defying predictions of a fractured world economy.
- •For Africa, and Kenya in particular, this renewed momentum in cross-border activity signals opportunity. At the same time, it demands strategic alignment, especially from the region’s financial sector.
- •Each surge in global trade is matched by a parallel demand for financing, from pre-export loans and working capital to risk guarantees and digital payment systems.
Despite the political rhetoric around “deglobalisation,” the data tells another story. According to DHL’s tracker, goods trade volumes in the first half of 2025 grew faster than in any comparable half-year since 2010, excluding the pandemic rebound. Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade rose by 9.6% year-on-year, reflecting both resilience and rising integration into global value chains.
“Trade barriers do not serve the world’s best interests. But we must never underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with each other," said John Pearson, CEO DHL Express.
The world economy is becoming more networked, not less connected.
While geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies have influenced trade routes, they haven’t reversed globalisation. The report highlights that three times more trade occurs between close allies than between rival nations, and that the average distance of trade flows has reached a record 4,990 kilometres- meaning countries are trading farther, not less. The world economy is becoming more networked, not less connected.
“While it would be a mistake to disregard current policy threats to globalization, companies are not generally pulling back from international markets, trade is crossing the longest average distance on record, and geopolitical conflicts have reshaped only a small fraction of the world’s international activity," said Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management.
For Africa, this shift is significant. As manufacturing bases diversify away from Asia, new production and logistics hubs are emerging- from Morocco’s automotive zones to Kenya’s special economic parks. The shrinking share of intra-regional trade (now around 50.7%) suggests that nations positioning themselves as external trade getaways stand to benefit most.
Kenya’s geographical and institutional advantages, a strong port at Mombasa, growing industrial capacity, and integration through the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), make it a natural entry point for these flows. DHL’s data implies that regional economies with efficient trade facilitation, logistics infrastructure, and financial intermediation can anchor themselves within this next phase of global trade.
The Opportunities
This momentum presents a strategic opening for Kenya’s banking and financial sector. Each surge in global trade is matched by a parallel demand for financing, from pre-export loans and working capital to risk guarantees and digital payment systems. Yet, according to the African Development Bank, Africa’s trade finance gap still exceeds US$ 80 billion. Bridging that gap will determine whether Kenya merely participates in trade growth or becomes a continental hub for it.
Banks that traditionally focused on domestic lending can now capture value in export-driven sectors. Financing trade is not just about capital, it’s about building confidence in long-distance flows, supporting supply chain resilience, and reducing currency mismatches through cross-border settlements.
To seize the opportunity, Kenyan banks must rethink their approach:
- •Develop regionally integrated trade-finance solutions aligned with AfCFTA protocols and digital customs systems.
- •Leverage data and analytics (like DHL’s flow-distance insights) to identify low-risk, high-opportunity trade corridors.
- •Expand access for SMEs in export sectors through structured credit, factoring, and supply-chain finance.
- •Strengthen cross-border partnerships to capture regional trade settlements and improve currency liquidity.
Global trade isn’t in decline, it’s simply evolving into its next form. Those able to interpret and adapt to its shifting patterns will shape the next phase of global growth.
For Kenya, the question is no longer whether to engage globally, but how to do so strategically, by channeling finance to the right sectors, managing geopolitical and credit risks, and integrating innovation into the core banking operations.
