Amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy, Africa is quietly emerging as an unlikely standout in global trade, particularly through stronger-than-expected export growth in the first quarter of 2025.
- •New data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Update- July 2025, shows that African merchandise exports rose by 5% quarter-on-quarter and a remarkable 14% year-on-year.
- •This performance comes at a time when other major economies struggled: India’s exports shrank by 4%, Korea’s by 5%, and China’s imports fell by 4% quarterly and 1% annually.
- •These divergent trends highlight Africa’s growing ability to withstand external shocks, even as traditional powerhouses in Asia grapple with weaker demand and shifting trade dynamics.
That resilience becomes even more notable when placed against the broader global picture. In Q1 2025, global trade in goods and services increased by only 1.5%, with most of the momentum concentrated in developed economies.
The United States saw a 14% spike in imports as firms rushed to stockpile ahead of new tariffs under the “Directive to Prevent the Unfair Exploitation of American Innovation,” while the European Union led global export growth among advanced economies with a 6% quarterly rise.
In contrast, many developing countries saw negative trade activity. Africa’s ability to outperform both its peers and global expectations points to structural shifts that may be setting the stage for more sustained growth.
One of the clearest signs of this shift lies in the steady rise of intra-African trade. As global supply chains fragment and countries look inward, Africa is turning to itself- trading more within the continent and relying less on distant partners. In Q1 2025, intra-African trade increased by 16% year-on-year, reflecting growing regional demand and the early effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Historically, intra-African trade has accounted for just around 15% of the continent’s total trade, far lower than levels in Asia or Europe. The latest data suggest that this trend may be turning, with African countries increasingly sourcing goods and services within their own borders.
This regional shift is also accompanied by a diversification in what Africa trades. Although the report doesn’t disaggregate African trade by sector, global data shows that chemicals and pharmaceuticals grew by 20% and 15% respectively in Q1 2025- two areas where African manufacturers, particularly in countries like Egypt and South Africa, are beginning to scale production.
At the same time, global trade in communication equipment and road vehicles declined sharply- by 13% and 4% respectively- sectors where Africa has limited exposure. This may have shielded the continent from the worst effects of demand swings in global high-tech supply chains, while enabling it to grow through sectors that are proving more resilient.
All of this is unfolding within a trade environment that remains highly volatile and unpredictable. The U.S’s new 10% baseline tariff, along with targeted duties on steel, aluminium, and autos, continues to inject uncertainty into global markets. While developed economies have been able to drive growth through pre-emptive importing and policy-driven stimulus, developing countries face more complex challenges. South-South trade, excluding East Asia, contracted by 3% in Q1. Yet Africa managed to stay above water, partly thanks to continued trade with China and strengthening intra-regional links.
Looking forward, this quiet momentum could signal the early signs of a deeper transformation. While risks remain, such as slowing demand in key markets, inflationary pressures, and infrastructure gaps, Africa’s strong showing in Q1 offers more than just a temporary boost. It points to a continent beginning to rewire its trade networks, strengthen its supply chains, and redefine its role in the global economy.
In a world marked by fragmentation and uncertainty, Africa’s ability to quietly chart a new course is not just encouraging, it may be a glimpse of trade’s future.
