Africa's domestic capital pools now exceeding US$2 trillion for the first time, yet the continent imports more than 70% of its refined fuel and faces an 86-million-tonne fuel shortfall by 2040, according to the Africa Finance Corporation's State of Africa's Infrastructure Report 2026, released Thursday at the Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi.
- •The contradiction sits at the heart of the report's central argument: Africa's development problem is no longer one of capital scarcity but of capital deployment.
- •Africa's non-bank domestic capital pools have surpassed US$2 trillion, exceeding the approximately US$1.7 trillion in cumulative external financing flows the continent received between 2014 and 2024.
- •Pension and insurance assets have crossed US$1 trillion for the first time while central bank reserves rose to US$530 billion in 2025.
"The constraint is no longer capital, it is intermediation," AFC President and CEO Samaila Zubairu said at the summit. "We have the savings, but not yet the systems to channel them into infrastructure and industry at scale. Closing that gap is now Africa's most important economic task."
Official development assistance to Africa fell to the equivalent of KSh9.6 trillion in 2023 from KSh10.9 trillion in 2020, with further declines expected, tightening the window for continued reliance on foreign capital.
On the energy side, the gap between what Africa holds and what it imports is equally stark. The Middle East conflict has disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, exposing a region that sources up to three quarters of its refined fuel from the Middle East. Africa imports more than US$230 billion worth of essential goods annually, including food, plastics, steel, and fertiliser, much of it from the Gulf. Demand for refined fuel is projected to grow 56% by 2040, creating an import shortfall of 86 million tonnes, equivalent to almost three Dangote-sized refineries.
AFC chief economist Rita Babihuga-Nsanze flagged fertilisers as a particular vulnerability. Africa holds around 80% of the world's phosphate reserves, a primary fertiliser input, yet produces only 20% of global supply. Gulf-sourced fertiliser disruptions caused by the Iran conflict have compounded seasonal shortages across the continent. "There's a real opportunity for Africa to step in the gap here," she said.
The report also identified aviation as an underutilised integration lever. Across Kenya, Rwanda, and Ethiopia alone, aviation contributes a combined US$5.5 billion to GDP and supports around one million jobs. "Aviation is a low-hanging fruit for Africa and we believe it is key to achieving the African Continental Free Trade Agreement," Babihuga-Nsanze said.
President William Ruto, who delivered the keynote address at the summit, tied the report's findings directly to his government's financing strategy. He highlighted Kenya's National Infrastructure Fund and a proposed Sovereign Wealth Fund as tools to mobilise domestic and international capital, with a target of funding priority projects worth KSh5 trillion (US$40 billion) over the next decade. Kenya also announced it would increase its equity stake in the AFC by KSh3.25 billion as the institution establishes a regional office in Nairobi.
The report's release came on the same day that Aliko Dangote pledged to build a 650,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Tanga, Tanzania, a commitment that Babihuga-Nsanze's own numbers framed as necessary but far from sufficient. At the current trajectory, Africa would need the equivalent of nearly three such refineries just to close the projected 2040 fuel gap.
