African firms are recalibrating their external partnerships-particularly toward Asia), and the disconnect between macroeconomic performance and the day-to-day realities facing businesses is still a defining feature of the landscape, the latest Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (ATB) shows.
- •One of the most notable developments in the current landscape is the emergence of Mozambique as the top-ranked country in the barometer.
- •Yet a closer analytical reading reveals a persistent macro-micro disconnect: while Mozambique performs strongly on headline metrics, it ranks considerably lower in terms of business sentiment.
- •The 2025 provides a comprehensive assessment of the trade ecosystem across ten key African markets- Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.
“Across the 10 markets we surveyed, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category, including power, telecommunications, road, rail, ports and digital border systems. This marks the first time since the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer’s launch that all infrastructure indicators have improved simultaneously, reflecting growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation across the continent”, says Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade for Business and Commercial Banking at Standard Bank Group.
“Together, these 10 markets account for 68% of Sub‑Saharan Africa’s GDP, and the shifts highlighted in Issue 5 of ATB point to a more positive outlook for cross‑border commerce on the continent.”
The latest ATB edition points to a region going through a structural shift: trade-enabling infrastructure is gradually improving.
Mozambique's rise reflects strong quantitative indicators, driven largely by substantial foreign direct investment into its liquefied natural gas sector and sustained efforts by the central bank to maintain currency stability.
Much of the macro-micro divergence stems from liquidity constraints linked to tight monetary policy, alongside what might be described as economic porosity- where large-scale investment inflows remain concentrated in capital-intensive projects and circulate only weakly through the broader domestic economy.
Another striking takeaway from the 2025 report is the broad-based progress in infrastructure. For the first time since the barometer’s inception, all major infrastructure indicators- including electricity supply, telecommunications, road and rail networks, ports, and digital border systems- recorded simultaneous improvement across the surveyed markets.
Large-scale projects such as the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant in Tanzania, alongside the continued expansion of digital trade facilitation systems in Kenya, illustrate the scale of this investment. Importantly, these improvements are beginning to register at the firm level. Businesses increasingly report shorter transit times and more reliable utility supply, developments that have helped lift the overall Business Confidence Index to 65.
Rising business confidence is unfolding alongside a gradual realignment in global trade relationships. As geopolitical tensions and tariff adjustments reshape supply chains, African firms are increasingly diversifying their external relationships. For the first time, 35% of surveyed businesses identified Asia as their preferred trading partner, narrowly surpassing the 32% that prioritize intra-African trade. Competitive pricing and deeper manufacturing ecosystems remain powerful incentives for engagement with Asian markets.
At the same time, awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area is expanding. Within the East African Community, for instance, exports have risen following recent bilateral agreements aimed at easing non-tariff barriers and improving cross-border logistics.
Despite these positive developments, the trade environment is still facing meaningful constraints. Climate volatility has emerged as an increasingly material economic risk, with more than 30% of surveyed firms reporting productivity losses linked to extreme weather events. The impact has been particularly acute in Zambia, where prolonged drought has significantly disrupted hydroelectric power generation.
Moreover, governments across the region face mounting fiscal pressures. Efforts to stabilize public finances have, in many cases, translated into more aggressive revenue mobilization strategies. While understandable from a fiscal standpoint, businesses argue that the resulting tax burden is becoming a growing constraint on cross-border trade and investment.
The 2025 Africa Trade Barometer portrays a continent gradually strengthening the physical and institutional foundations needed to support deeper trade integration. Yet the durability of this progress will ultimately depend on whether policymakers can better align macroeconomic management with the practical realities facing firms on the ground. Bridging that gap may prove central to translating Africa’s improving trade architecture into sustained and broad-based economic growth.
