April Monthly Report

Monthly Market Report

‘More money is made on Wall Street from salesmanship than from investment ability.’

Warren Buffet

Dear Market Participant,

Another blissful month has dawned and we hope the same enthusiasm that comes with it has been extended towards your portfolio. It has surely been a rough one and the more rough it gets the more difficult it is to spot the mavericks.

Much has transpired in the previous month and what surprised us was the jugular rebound of the Zambian Kwacha. The Kwacha outperformed silver, gold and other currencies. It gained 19.9% against the dollar, while the Kenyan Shilling still hovers around the 101 level to the dollar.

kwacha.JPG

Source: Bloomberg

Now let’s have a quick look at what occurred during the month under review. As a reminder an investor should always be aware that past performance may not be an indicator of future performance.

Equity Markets

In the Equity markets the All share Index remained somewhat flat and inched up by 0.05 points from 146.88 (4th April) to close the month at 146.93 points. On the other hand the benchmark NSE 20 share index fell down by 0.18% from 4,016.64 points to 4,009.26 points. As we write this report the NSE 20 Index has strengthened to 4,022.61 points (3rd May).

NSE 20 Share Index 29th April.JPG

Source: Bloomberg

Monthly volumes reduced by 25.66% to stand at 413.5 million shares traded during the month. The number of deals followed suit and reduced from 33,224 to 24,429 deals.

Equity April Stats.JPG

Note: We have excluded the Stanlib Fahari I-Reit in the data

Gainers

Notable gainers of the month are listed in the table below.

The CDC Group Connection

ARM Cement which has recently sealed an equity investment deal with CDC Group came at the top spot of the monthly gainers with a 16.67% gain. It recently announced its full year results in which they made a loss, however, it was coincided with the equity investment announcement from CDC throwing mixed signals in the market, which so far has been received positively.

ARM Cement.JPG

Source: Financial Times

I&M Holdings gained an 8.74% during the period under review. CDC Group Plc entered into an agreement to acquire about 10.68% stake of the lender which is currently held by German and French development finance institutions, DEG (6.25%) and Proparco (4.43%). The deal is estimated to be worth around KES 4.5Bn.

I&M Holdings.JPG

Source: Financial Times

Top 10 Gainers

Company 4 April. 2016 VWAP 29 April, 2016 VWAP % Gain Shares Traded
1. ARM Cement 30.00 35.00 +16.67 3,318,000
2. Pan Africa Insurance 40.00 46.00 +15.00 48,500
3. E.A Cables 6.35 7.15 +12.60 866,500
4. BRITAM 11.85 13.25 +11.81 6,568,500
5. KenGen 7.85 8.55 +8.92 5,343,900
6. I&M Holdings 103.00 112.00 +8.74 1,735,900
7. Kenya Power 10.85 11.50 +5.99 3,380,900
8. Unga Group 35.00 37.00 +5.71 71,000
9. East African Breweries Ltd 281.00 297.00 +5.69 3,565,200
10. Housing Finance 20.50 21.50 +4.88 1,115,900

Source: (NSE, Kenyan WallStreet)

Losers

The losers dominated the month with over 30 counters ending the month on the red zone. Leading the pack was National Bank of Kenya which lost almost a quarter of its value over the period. NBK made a full year loss of KES 1.2Bn.

National Bank of Kenya 1m chart.JPG

Source: Financial Times

Top 10 Losers

Company 4 April 2016 VWAP 29 April, 2016 VWAP % Loss Shares Traded
1. National Bank of Kenya 12.15 9.15 -24.69 1,200,800
2. Uchumi Supermarkets 5.10 4.00 -21.57 1,569,100
3. Standard Chartered Bank of Kenya 246.00 193.00 -21.54 622,600
4. Scangroup 30.00 24.00 -20.00 114,900
5. Marshalls E.A 10.15 8.20 -19.21 33,800
6. TransCentury 5.45 4.45 -18.35 499,200
7. Home Afrika 1.85 1.55 -16.22 3,564,300
8. Longhorn 5.40 4.55 -15.74 547,600
9. E.A Portland Cement 45.00 39.00 -13.33 17,800
10. Eveready E.A 2.80 2.45 -12.50 396,300

Source: (NSE, Kenyan WallStreet)

Monthly Performance.xlsx

Fixed Income Market

Activity in the debt market was down by almost half in April compared to March which is the current peak of the year. Total deals executed during the month were 432.

Debt Market Statistics

January February March April
Number of deals 182 372 936 432
Bond Turnover (KES) 21,593,790,000 23,651,678,000 70,078,333,000 38,138,540,000

Source: (NSE, Kenyan WallStreet)

April Inflation

Kenya’s April inflation dropped to a 34 Month low of 5.27% down from 6.45% recorded a month earlier representing the lowest point since June 2013 when it touched 4.91%. This is the fifth month in a row that the cost of living measure has dropped since December when it stood at 8%.

inflation.JPG

Source: KNBS, Kenyan WallStreet

 

 

Disclaimer: The contents of this website have been prepared to provide you with general information only. In preparing the information, we have not taken into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Any liability whatsoever is disclaimed.